The security achievements of the long campaign imposed on Israel mark the beginning of diplomatic, economic and demographic momentum. Dr. Raphael Ben-Levi, head of the Churchill Program, looks optimistically toward Israel’s future.
Dr. Raphael Ben-Levi, a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute and head of the Churchill Program at the Argaman Institute, views Israel’s coming decades with cautious optimism. Despite a war that began with the country’s greatest tragedy since the Holocaust and claimed many lives, he believes Israel has emerged stronger.
“The security dimension is the clearest,” he says. “We have neutralized existential threats that grew before the war as a result of the Oslo years, territorial withdrawals, dependence on American supplies, and outsourcing security to bodies such as UNIFIL and the Palestinian Authority. These steps weakened us. After three years, we have reversed these trends on almost every front.”
Ben-Levi warns against returning to these approaches or relinquishing Israel’s current foothold in Gaza and Lebanon.
“Things could be better, but we are in a good position. We have established a security zone in Lebanon and neutralized the existential threat from Hezbollah, even if we have not eliminated it entirely. In Gaza, we have created a substantial perimeter and reduced Hamas from an existential threat to a far lesser one. We control territory, and although relying on international actors remains a risk, the government appears unwilling to abandon its demand that Hamas be disarmed or to let an international force do the job for us.”
Iran, Israel’s greatest threat, has also been substantially, though not completely, neutralized. “Taken together, Israel is in its strongest security position since its establishment. New threats may emerge, and we may not preserve all our gains, but we must compare our situation with where we were, not where we would like to be.”
Asked whether these achievements are irreversible, Ben-Levi replies: “Nothing is irreversible.” Nevertheless, he sees a shift in Israeli consensus on retaining territory, preserving gains against Hamas, developing independent munitions production and reducing dependence on the United States. He calls the government’s decision to reduce that dependence significant and unprecedented, with broad public support. In principle, he believes even center-left parties could endorse it.
The Spring-Loaded Israeli Economy
Ben-Levi considers it an achievement that Israel’s economy survived the prolonged war without collapsing. “The Israeli economy is now like a tightly wound spring, ready to leap forward, particularly now that existential threats have been neutralized. If we prevent a constant threat of rockets and missiles and consolidate our security and stability, the economic benefits will be substantial.”
Israel’s demonstrated military capabilities could drive further growth. Its defenses against ballistic missiles and technologies combining intelligence with artificial intelligence have attracted considerable interest worldwide, including in the United States, with potentially dramatic economic consequences.
Ben-Levi also rejects claims that Israel is internationally isolated. While acknowledging condemnations and criticism, particularly from left-wing movements, he argues that Israel’s leadership has stood by its principles and national interests.
“Israel’s standing has strengthened among other groups in the West and beyond. European right-wing parties see us as a significant partner. Anti-Israel voices in the United States have become more influential, but Israel still enjoys strong support among most Republicans.
“India has deepened its ties with us since the war began. We also cooperate with regional governments, including the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, Greece and Somaliland. South America is another important arena, where several countries have significantly shifted their approach to Israel, including steps toward restoring relations with Venezuela after a 17-year break.
“Israel is far from isolated in a world that wants to stand alongside those it sees as strong and capable.”
Removing the Hezbollah threat could also expand Mediterranean natural gas exploration. “This trend has been developing for a decade. Israel is becoming energy-independent and exporting gas to Jordan and Egypt. Without the Hezbollah threat, we will be better positioned to attract international companies to explore for more gas and expand the sector.”
Ben-Levi also anticipates increased aliya to Israel as antisemitism rises. “It will not be a flood of millions of Jews, but what began as a trickle has become a steady flow. These people arrive with resources, rather than fleeing without assets. This, too, offers grounds for demographic and economic optimism.”
The Warning Signs
Despite these positive trends, Ben-Levi identifies serious risks. The first is the immediate threat posed by Palestinian Authority security forces, which could turn against Israel and its citizens.
He also warns that the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan reflect the interests of their governments more than those of their populations, creating the possibility that these countries could turn against Israel.
Syria is another concern, having shifted from an Iranian sphere of influence to a Turkish one. Terrorist threats also persist, making a consistent Israeli policy essential to prevent hostile forces from becoming entrenched along its borders.
Ben-Levi further warns of changing American attitudes toward Israel. “Republicans still have a solid majority in our favor, but the Democratic Party has undergone significant changes and is becoming distinctly anti-Israel. An anti-Israel president could certainly be elected.
“Republicans are now where Democrats were 15 years ago, when antisemites began raising their voices. The question is whether the sensible mainstream will know how to draw a line against them.
“This is a long-term threat. But when I compare our current position with where we stood before, I remain optimistic.”
This article was originally published in Sovereignty Journal, Issue No. 20 (October 2026). 📖 "Click here to read the full issue